An Warning to Keir Starmer drawn from His Own History: If You're Not Bold regarding Brexit & the EU, His Labour Rivals Will Be.

Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.