A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."